Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 5.112074 6.002923 6.987088 8.152760 9.493399 10.984578 12.766402
2025-08-03 3.669686 4.847010 6.288662 8.173441 10.560934 13.471824 17.275540
2025-08-10 2.666444 3.900171 5.550370 7.895264 11.113214 15.341492 21.278274
2025-08-17 1.975949 3.164607 4.883068 7.508069 11.365661 16.764532 24.812450
2025-08-24 1.564554 2.715811 4.498017 7.396870 11.914505 18.584451 29.039106
2025-08-31 1.271683 2.376339 4.196002 7.327563 12.469106 20.425614 33.454726
2025-09-07 1.112347 2.219185 4.145006 7.626450 13.605797 23.238816 39.610841
2025-09-14 0.945634 2.010511 3.963827 7.665169 14.299521 25.400100 44.933149
2025-09-21 0.809115 1.828025 3.793042 7.685075 14.944586 27.524219 50.378418
2025-09-28 0.696644 1.668593 3.634894 7.696214 15.560272 29.640316 55.989903
2025-10-05 0.670339 1.684964 3.819834 8.382633 17.489428 34.229085 66.308199
2025-10-12 0.607529 1.607029 3.798745 8.653273 18.651752 37.536278 74.618979
2025-10-19 0.553511 1.541605 3.800067 8.983775 19.998145 41.365655 84.340027
2025-10-26 0.482777 1.420564 3.660324 8.997347 20.712863 44.081545 92.258451
2025-11-02 0.402850 1.256913 3.393870 8.690486 20.719450 45.416151 97.649601
2025-11-09 0.330109 1.093865 3.097771 8.266676 20.413855 46.083298 101.772542
2025-11-16 0.283972 0.994368 2.940576 8.144869 20.756356 48.102234 108.784383
2025-11-23 0.246694 0.911575 2.810923 8.069050 21.190317 50.346926 116.446706
2025-11-30 0.229737 0.888587 2.838355 8.395319 22.605812 54.831406 129.193555
2025-12-07 0.204724 0.832322 2.762151 8.437566 23.337166 57.867619 139.064622
2025-12-14 0.182212 0.778507 2.682954 8.459287 24.018594 60.849351 149.054928
2025-12-21 0.162232 0.728188 2.604712 8.471444 24.675847 63.831204 159.281550
2025-12-28 0.162928 0.756544 2.775834 9.220448 27.326309 71.688413 181.130303